Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 35.365359 41.913594 49.100586 57.542835 67.155219 77.725949 90.195518
2024-12-29 26.127053 34.902647 45.476733 59.017355 75.744438 95.571638 120.676450
2025-01-05 20.054614 29.486363 41.715563 58.438331 80.377383 107.820154 144.332839
2025-01-12 17.501497 27.795585 41.940401 62.288723 90.224387 126.586465 176.739201
2025-01-19 13.455070 23.181854 37.378771 58.883499 89.774826 131.583408 191.287829
2025-01-26 11.788130 21.718434 36.940491 60.964647 96.719163 146.584785 219.701080
2025-02-02 10.928916 21.339598 37.981679 65.170961 106.842906 166.409808 255.643070
2025-02-09 9.732601 20.176112 37.599702 67.070892 113.574520 181.670726 285.826484
2025-02-16 8.576185 18.871372 36.785781 68.124386 118.972631 195.151942 313.971423
2025-02-23 7.434083 17.385880 35.454308 68.138426 122.642161 206.132810 338.834336
2025-03-02 6.257389 15.614411 33.378815 66.646362 123.698326 213.080235 357.859725
2025-03-09 5.402355 14.334537 32.015417 66.200954 126.340386 222.488637 380.886488
2025-03-16 4.076692 11.856416 28.231641 61.388653 121.876368 221.384227 389.239524
2025-03-23 3.591514 11.198734 27.962369 63.074813 128.834117 239.246413 428.643016
2025-03-30 2.989188 10.096673 26.592857 62.471791 131.633511 250.367822 457.757957
2025-04-06 2.823296 10.085683 27.555984 66.540747 143.163112 276.670868 512.679406
2025-04-13 2.178605 8.569291 24.903067 62.942931 140.137231 277.935473 526.309055
2025-04-20 1.971762 8.271367 25.026678 65.142038 148.228648 298.835004 573.632557
2025-04-27 1.900028 8.378932 26.145823 69.584649 160.948577 328.466716 636.914242
2025-05-04 1.716182 8.066755 26.165938 71.590433 168.965960 350.040528 687.184067
2025-05-11 1.516318 7.636692 25.811844 72.702395 175.237738 368.714927 733.116526
2025-05-18 1.302201 7.079900 25.024795 72.717214 179.240148 383.378599 772.546809
2025-05-25 1.069049 6.355043 23.638993 71.142297 179.786371 391.596668 800.822401